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Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2014 00:00:00 until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future Start Two months until 2014. I'll make my predictions once 2013 is over with. Betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:02, October 28, 2013 (UTC) : Now that the 2013 Atlantic season is done, I'll give out my pre-season predictions: 9-14 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-3 majors. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:40, December 17, 2013 (UTC) ::: HAHAHA, LOL HAPPY NEW YEAR LOL (you should see the Google Doodle LOL the 3 was out of breath) London and sydney fireworks was AWESOMEEEE Susanna Reid said it was meant to taste of strawberries XD ANYWAY... Lemme see... 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 majors. “i liek turtlez 02:22, January 1, 2014 (UTC) :::: Happy new year to you too! Yeah, that Google doodle looks pretty cool...in fact, it's gotta be one of the best doodles I've seen in a while. I'm still going to go with my above predictions, and I'll update them in March or April. It's also a good time to remind everyone to edit when you're at your best or you will do things like this, [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven']][[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|'09876']] 20:00, January 1, 2014 (UTC) Here are my Atlantic basin predictions: 8''' tropical depressions, '''7 named storms, 3''' hurricanes, '''1 major hurricane, 17.50 named storm days, 4.50 hurricane days, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 55 (give or take 10). AndrewTalk To Me 01:46, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : It's time to update my predictions, I'm now thinking 8-13 named storms, 2-5 'hurricanes, and '''0-2 '''major hurricanes. I've lowered my predictions slightly due to incoming El Nino, which could quiet down the Atlantic this year. On June 1 (the start of the season), I'll issue another forecast, and my final predictions will come during mid-season. Steve820 21:04, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : 9 ts might be 7 if a super El Niño develops 3 hurricanes at most and 1 single major or not like last year. If 2013 was a dissappointment this might be as well. I am becoming crazy with all these hurricane seasons.Allanjeffs 01:11, April 10, 2014 (UTC) Not sure this is bad or not.--Isaac829 23:46, April 15, 2014 (UTC) :They'll still be invests, just no more ATCF updates prior to advisory time. We'll have to wait for the advisory to actually come out. I don't know why the NHC is doing this. It's the media's problem, not there's. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 02:05, April 16, 2014 (UTC) :I might say even though I hate this news I understand their case.Many people jump the gun including me sometimes when there is a renumber,So I believe they are trying to teach the media and bloggers to be more calm and not jump the gun.Allanjeffs 06:06, April 17, 2014 (UTC) The season is starting in 29 days! Can't wait to see what this year's Atlantic season will have in store! :) Steve820 20:56, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :15 more days! Steve820 20:07, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :Wow,I have been so busy with life I haven't been tracking these things, some recent findings have shocked me: the retirement of Ingrid suprised me. I was drinking tea while I read that NOW I NEED A NEW KEYBOARD :P (JK). On the other hand I'm not surprised by the retirement of Manuel. (I'm getting off topic, I should probably put this on last year's archive). Also, I think we might have another storm in May this year. I just have a feeling. :Another example of a surprise (late) discovery to me: Everything below me!leeboy100 (talk) 23:50, May 19, 2014 (UTC) ::As everyone cheers on Amanda in the EPAC, I would like to point out our first candidate for a tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic. Per Jeff Masters, GFS forecasts the MJO to increase thunderstorm activity in the Western Caribbean on the week of June 1, prompting potential development around the Yucatan. However, this does '''not mean 2014 will be active in any way. Just take a look at inactive 1968, which had Abby and Candy develop in the same general region in June. AndrewTalk To Me 18:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::The countdown continues... 6 more days until the season starts! Hopefully we'll see a storm in the western Caribbean during the week of June 1, that'll mark a very early start to the season. However, this season should be inactive due to El Nino. It's still not out of the question we could get a re-1992 though, in which we have a inactive season but there is one extremely destructive storm (remember Hurricane Andrew?). In fact, there's a tiny chance we could even get a re-Katrina this season, and that won't be good. That's why we need to be prepared every season, just in case a devastating disaster strikes New Orleans or something. Steve820 21:05, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::4 days left... Steve820 23:59, May 28, 2014 (UTC) :::3 more days! Steve820 00:18, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::2 days left!! :D Steve820 22:57, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::less than 1 day left!!!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 17:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::There's a cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, probably won't develop, but it's close to where I live and could bring rain (which we don't need any more of) to my area :::leeboy100 (talk) 17:32, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::::And the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (well, 1 hour, 18 minutes ago) in UTC. Might see that GoM invest the models were predicting develop into Arthur in about a week or so. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::Hopefully we'll see an Arthur during the next week or so. I predict this season will be somewhat inactive to near-average because of that El Nino. My updated forecast for this season calls for 9-12 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1''' major hurricane. Anyway, happy hurricane season!! Woohoo! Let's celebrate the start of the season with a bang! Steve820 03:16, June 1, 2014 (UTC) The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is now open!--Isaac829 04:02, June 1, 2014 (UTC) Re-analysis Not completely related to 2014, but some notable reanalysis for the Atlantic has now taken place. Camille of 1969 had 900 mbars at landfall, but winds were downed to 175 mph. Audrey of 1957 was actually a cat 3 at landfall in LA (120 mph), not a cat 4, and that also makes it 2nd to Alma of 1966 as the strongest June hurricane on record in the Atlantic, one of only two June major hurricanes (the first storm of 1945 was downgraded to a cat 2 in reanalysis), and she remains the strongest June landfall. Neither the 1945 or 1949 atlantic hurricane seasons had two cat 4 U.S. landfalls, as the hurricanes that hit Texas those years were downgraded to a cat 3 (1945) and 2 (1949) upon landfall. The 1947 Fort Lauterdale hurricane was not a cat 5 according to reanalysis, but instead a strong cat 4, same with Hurricane Dog of 1950, both of which were really 145 mph major hurricanes. Hurricane King of 1950 was upgraded to a 130 mph category 4 hurricane upon landfall in Miami, but Hurricanes Baker and Charlie of 1950 were revised to be cat 2's, not 3's, so 1950's former 8 major hurricane record is now down to 6, so 2005 and 1961 now hold a tied record of 7 major hurricanes. 1950 also had a lot of unnamed tropical storms that weren't discovered operationally, so their ACE/storm total is a lot lower than it once was. ''Ryan1000'' 16:11, April 2, 2014 (UTC) :Unusual discoveries. Ryan, one fact you missed was with the added storms, 1949's September ties with 2002, 2007, and 2010 for the most active one in terms of total storms. AndrewTalk To Me 11:57, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :::Forgot to post this before, but the link for those changes is a blog post from Dr Masters here. ''Ryan1000'' 09:20, May 23, 2014 (UTC) June Yay!--Isaac829 04:02, June 1, 2014 (UTC) 90L.INVEST AOI:Over BOC An elongated area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche extends northeastward into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Although shower activity is currently disorganized, some slow development of this nearly stationary disturbance will be possible over the next several days as environmental conditions become marginally conducive. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent This might become Arthur and the gfs is showing another storm in the long run so hurricane season its officially here.Allanjeffs 06:13, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :For me, I expect this storm to become a weak TS or TD. Happy hurricane season! AndrewTalk To Me 14:30, June 1, 2014 (UTC) ::We might see Arthur from this though it'll probably be a weakling. Hurricane season is officially here! Yay. Steve820 16:37, June 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::And...gone from NHC. Sorry Arthur, wait till later. ''Ryan1000'' 17:58, June 2, 2014 :::::...and, it's back on the NHC TWO :D. Probably won't develop though, it's at 10% (20%) and upper-level winds aren't favorable. Steve820 23:00, June 3, 2014 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Its here but I really doubt it will become Arthur but anyways if does form it will be weak.Allanjeffs 13:39, June 4, 2014 (UTC) :GFS sees this looping around in the BoC though the other models seem to take it towards a landfall midway between Veracruz and Tampico. It shouldn't become very strong, though flooding rains could still be a threat; Boris has already caused up to 12 inches of rainfall in some areas of southern Mexico, the NHC expects isolated areas to see upwards of 20 inches. Hopefully everyone stays safe down there. ''Ryan1000'' 21:05, June 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Flash floods and mudslides could be a big issue with this storm and Boris. Hopefully the guys down in southern Mexico are safe. Also, I still don't think it will become Arthur because environmental conditions are simply too unfavorable. Arthur might have to come a bit later, I'll be very surprised if this thing could actually pull itself together and become named. Steve820 00:12, June 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::It's up to 30% now, it might actually have a chance at becoming Arthur if it stays offshore. ''Ryan1000'' 12:21, June 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::The BOC for sure can make magic. This might become Arthur today if the hurricane hunter fine a circulation and the winds to warrant upgrade.Allanjeffs 13:58, June 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::Make that 40%...Ryan1000' 23:38, June 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::It will go straight into Arthur if upgrade as it has already gale winds. We just need an air force plane to fly into they system so it can be upgrade.Allanjeffs 23:57, June 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::Up to 50% we might get TD 1 or TS Arthur depending of tomorrow.Allanjeffs 06:00, June 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::::70%...--Isaac829 17:03, June 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::It's almost out of time, has about 6-12 hours before it'll be moving ashore. Still has a shot at being Arthur though. 'Ryan1000' 17:51, June 6, 2014 (UTC) I have doubts that this will be classified. The center of circulation is b-lining the coast at a pretty persistent clip. The NHC has classified storms near land in the past, but they weren't like this one devoid of any deep convection. Radar out of Alvarado shows pretty much nothing. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 18:57, June 6, 2014 (UTC) :90L has made landfall, no chance for TD 1.--Isaac829 21:22, June 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Spoke too soon Isaac, it's still at 70% and shower activity's been increasing. It could still become a depression before moving inland. Also, this invest looks very small on satellite imagery, it might be near Marco-sized. For more info check out the TWO: ::1. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the ::center of a well-defined low pressure system is located along the ::coast of eastern Mexico near Vera Cruz. Associated shower activity ::has been gradually increasing over the past few hours, and an Air ::Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the disturbance ::has reported surface winds of 30 to 35 mph to the northeast and ::east of the center thus far. If thunderstorm activity persists near ::the low center, a tropical depression could still form before the ::system moves slowly inland over eastern Mexico later tonight and ::tomorrow. Whether or not a tropical depression forms, this ::disturbance will produce gusty winds and heavy rains, along with ::life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of ::southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. ::* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. ::* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. ::So it seems likely we'll get a depression from this before it ACTUALLY moves inland! But will it be named Arthur? Probably not but it's still possible if it rapidly strengthen! Steve820 00:58, June 7, 2014 (UTC) :::Not anymore. Thunderstorm activity in the invest has basically crashed apart after landfall, and upper level winds plus land proximity will inhibit any further development of it. Mexico should still ontinue to see heavy floods, however. The chance of tropical development has fallen down to '''20%' for both the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 11:32, June 7, 2014 (UTC) ::::Down to near 0%, yep, this invest has busted. It's one of the biggest Atlantic busts I've seen in awhile! Well, Arthur has to wait, hopefully it'll form this month. Steve820 16:49, June 7, 2014 (UTC) ::::Guys this will probably be upgrade to a td or even a ts in post analysis but we will probably need to wait and see.Allanjeffs 22:28, June 7, 2014 (UTC) AoI:Off Florida AoI:Off Florida Surface trough, sitting at 1019mb, probably dissipating soon, but NHC marks it yellow. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:31, June 19, 2014 (UTC) :The AOI's chances of formation are at near 0% for both the next 48 and 120 hours. I doubt this will become tropical, as it is in unfavorable conditions. Our first tropical cyclone will probably come in July. AndrewTalk To Me 22:45, June 19, 2014 (UTC) ::Yeah, this AOI isn't going to develop at all. Even though it's up to 10%, it's just an extremely random AOI that will completely die within unfavorable conditions soon. What a waste of time and energy making and writing that TWO and GTWO. Next! Steve820 03:49, June 20, 2014 (UTC) :::Steve I am going to give you an advice never but never understimate a system until it dissipate I have seen worse looking Aois developed into storms.EX looks when Jose was declared look at Patty of 2013 and even look at 90L that almost become a ts.(Might be upgrade) not saying this will develop but we should see.Allanjeffs 04:40, June 20, 2014 (UTC) ::::Surprisingly, despite a lack of change or organization in the AOI, its chances of formation in the next two and five days is now 10%. I still doubt it will develop, however, given the unfavorable conditions. AndrewTalk To Me 12:40, June 20, 2014 (UTC) :::::It seems like shower activity diminished but its still 10% as of the latest TWO. I still really don't think it'll develop. And Allan, this AOI won't pull a Jose or Patty, it's in too unfavorable conditions. Steve820 01:41, June 21, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Allan has a point, for example, TD15 never had any deep convection throughout its existence as a TC, Jerry and Jose were all just bare LLCs. The most important factor for formation is close circulation. 1013+mb tropical depressions have been declared before and many of them have formed east off Florida. It's currently in a situation similar to Cristobal or TD1 and they have formed in fairly unfavorable conditions. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:34, June 21, 2014 (UTC) :::::::The AOI is off the TWO, now being swept into a trough. For the record, the last time the Atlantic made it through June without getting a tropical cyclone was 2004, ten years ago (counting 2009's TD One). I think it would be nice if that madness took a break this year. AndrewTalk To Me 12:36, June 22, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Yeah, I also hope we make it through June without any storms since it'll be the first time since 2004 that happened. But I hope we'll see Arthur soon, I mean, if this inactivity continues we might have a season more pathetic than 2013! Steve820 18:05, June 22, 2014 (UTC) 91L.INVEST AOI:South Carolina Random low near Charlotte has a 0/20% chance.--Isaac829 16:12, June 27, 2014 (UTC) : According to Dr. Master's latest WUnderblog post, this one might have a chance of developing early next week, with only moderate 10-20 knot shear in the area just off the Carolinas on the U.S. East Coast. I don't expect it to become much if it does develop, maybe a minimal TS out to sea, but if it doesn't develop before July, it'll finally end the longest streak of storms forming in June or earlier in the Atlantic (every year from 2005-2013 had a storm of some intensity form in the Atlantic in June or earlier). Ryan1000 20:49, June 27, 2014 (UTC) ::I expect some very gradual development of the system, no stronger than a weak tropical storm at most. AndrewTalk To Me 22:51, June 27, 2014 (UTC) :::Yeah, I'm also thinking of a weak to moderate TS from this storm. Hopefully the struggling Atlantic finally produces a named storm soon, possibly out of this low! Steve820 03:32, June 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::Please, become a TD or a hurricane (as long as the latter is out to sea), but nothing in between! I'm tired of the name Arthur always going to weak storms. I can go a little while longer without a named storm in the ATL if it means Arthur having a fair shot at hurricane strength. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:14, June 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::Up to 30% (50%). I predict an Arthur out of this, but like Dylan said, I hope it doesn't peak as a tropical storm. I really, really hope we see a hurricane out of this, since I'm not a fan of weak depressions and especially not a fan of weakling TS's that steal/hijack a name off the list. This needs to be a hurricane! Come on AOI, try your hardest and don't peak as a weak TS or a depression! Steve820 17:04, June 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::Expect tropical storm Arthur or tropical depression 1 by tomorrow afternoon when the airplane of the NHC reach it.Allanjeffs 17:15, June 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::For the ones that want a hurricane out of this you might get your chance as the Euro now shows a hurricane entering the Carolinas out of this, it might occur if the system doesn't make landfall in Florida first before recurving,and there is plenty of warm water in the East coast so its not impossible we get hurricane Arthur out of this.Allanjeffs 18:58, June 28, 2014 (UTC) 91L.INVEST This AOI has been designated Invest 91L per Wunderground. Although showers and thunderstorms are rather disorganized, conditions will likely be conductive for additional development over the next few days. Its chances of formation have risen to 40% for the next two days and 60% for the next five. The Gulf Stream temperatures are slightly above average, wind shear is moderate, and dry air should not impose Invest 91L's development. Allan, I definitely think this invest has a very good shot at becoming a tropical storm, but poor King Arthur's non-hurricane streak may continue. This invest is rather close to land to become a hurricane, let alone in late June. AndrewTalk To Me 21:53, June 28, 2014 (UTC) You will be surprise of how many storms have give us surprising Andrew in the past, I am just saying look for example at Beryl she almost became a hurricane approaching Florida. If the system can come close to Florida but then turn away and move out to sea we may have a shot at seeing our first hurricane. Btw shear is not going to be a problem as an anticyclone is forming over our system.Allanjeffs 22:58, June 28, 2014 (UTC) : Should it become a depression or Arthur before July 1, the streak of early-season storms will be 9 years. I don't expect this to do much intensity-wise, although there have been quite a few surprises thus far this year in EPac, and I wouldn't be surprised if this one surprises us too. My guess is it would probably become a 60-65 mph storm at best, but I'm not calling for a hurricane just yet. Ryan1000 12:30, June 29, 2014 (UTC) ::It's up to 60% (80%), here comes Arthur! :D I think there's an outside shot at hurricane status but I wouldn't count on it. Steve820 18:52, June 29, 2014 (UTC) :::Some Tweets by Anthony Siciliano (@Ants_SNEweather) show model guidance that indicates potential New England impacts just in time for Independence Day. I don't know about you guys, but as much as I respect the power of Mother Nature, I do not appreciate her raining on my 4th of July festivities. Back off, future Arthur! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:39, June 29, 2014 (UTC)